Weather and Crop Report Ratings

I ran across this Prairie Farmer Story concerning early season weather and crop report ratings.  I agree that I would not expect the early season ratings to indicate final crop yields.  I do not think the ratings take into account some of the spot issues that the crop faces.  It is also interesting that Emerson Nafziger does not believe that early drought stresses might not affect overall yield if future rains are timely.

Right now my crop ratings would be good for corn and soybeans, but the crop is far from "made".  Dry weather has been favorable for timely planting and good stands for the most part.  Fields that needed to be replanted, needed replant because of wetness related factors.  We do have limited acreage of corn that will give average or better than average yields with one or 2 more good rains.  That corn will be tasselling  next week.  Much of our corn needs some rain right now to relieve the drought stress.  The southern third of Illinois could stand to get lots of rain. 

One thing about the ratings and weather that I don't really understand is weather related market volatility.  Prices seem to go up and down based on anticipated weather rather than what is actually going on at any given time or place.