What Is Going on with the Markets?

I should open this with a disclaimer.  I have no idea.  What is going on with last week's USDA report?  That might be a better question.  I will let Bryce Knorr give you his explanation of what is going on with the market.

Arlan Suderman says "Exporters have already shipped 90% of USDA's target for the marketing year that ends August 31; typical by date is 78.6% ".  USDA says that feed usage is down.  How could that be with a drought induced hay shortage?  I have recently read that western feedlots are paying $1 above market price for corn.  These kinds of discrepancies make it easy to question USDA.

• Could USDA be affected by politics?  They are not supposed to be.  
• Could their models be off for current conditions?
• Could crop reporters be fudging?
• What happens if USDA is wrong and we run out of corn early?  

I certainly have more questions than answers.  I think we are in for a wild ride until the bins are empty.  Next year's crop is all speculation at this point.  Remember the record crop forecast last year at this time?