Friends Don’t Let Friends Work Wet.

By W Kevin Nelson - Senior Agronomist Prairie Agronomics LLC

2019 A Year We’ll Remember

Though the year isn’t even half over, 2019 will go down as a milestone year for anyone involved in agriculture. Every year is different, but some remain more memorable than others. We got off on somewhat of a wrong foot by finishing off ‘18 without getting as much work done as we would have liked. Fertilizer applications and tillage were not completed in many areas last fall, putting farmers behind before the crop year even started.

Then the rains came. When we would have liked to have been catching up on those things left uncompleted, soil conditions kept getting wetter, and time kept on ticking. Several of my colleagues and I were talking about images and posts we were seeing on social media of people working ground in less than optimum conditions, and in the second week of April, we didn’t feel there was any need to feel rushed. There was plenty of time to get the #plant19 crop in the ground. I even created a meme: Friends Don’t Let Friends Work Wet.

And still the rains came. Most of Illinois, and much of the middle part of the country continued to receive above average precipitation. My colleagues and I continued to counsel patience and stress levels of growers continued to mount. April turned to May, then May was fast fading, June was in the windshield, approaching fast. Patience was nearly gone, and growers began looking at getting something in the ground, even if soil conditions weren’t ideal.

And the rains continued. The end of May and first few days of June brought a flurry of discussion surrounding Prevented Plant options, corn hybrid maturities, drying costs, black layer, the dreaded “F” word (frost) and MFP ”Trump Money.” Patience flew out the window. Planters rolled on corn, seedsmen were asked to find earlier maturing hybrids, and any window of sunshine brought the machines to the fields.

But the rains stopped. Now it’s starting to become apparent that those decisions made earlier may not pan out the way we hoped. Seed slots not closed, crusting, mud balls turned to dry clay balls. This crop is far from in the bin. The remainder of the growing season will challenge everyone. Even far from the farm gate. I have said that the ripples on these ponds in the fields will spread wide, and will touch everyone.

So 2019 is going to go down as a milestone year. Young people today will say to their grandchildren in 2049, “I remember ‘19. That was a terrible year in farming.” Much as my grandfathers talked about 1934 (drought and heat), my father talked about 1970  Southern Corn Leaf Blight and Texas Male Sterile seedcorn) and I talk about 1988 (drought.) We all have milestones in our lives, some personal, some shared with the broader community. The challenge before us is to not let the negative milestones become millstones around our necks, but to find positive milestones to balance the negative and keep us looking forward to the future

W Kevin Nelson

How late is late?

When I was in High School, someone asked my dad, " When do you plant corn"  I was getting ready to jump in and say we like to start in early April.  My Dad's wise but simple response was " when the soil is ready."  Of course he was right then, and  that is still correct today.  We are hearing about lots of farmers stressing over planting dates, but in my opinion, we are still in a position to have a good to excellent crop year.  I heard many top corn producers say that their best corn was not their earliest. 

Early soybean planting has been an emphasis of many people in the past few years.  The thought being that increased yields of very early planted soybeans may offset the risk of freezing.  I have seen some compelling research data that favors early planting, but I have also been told by some reliable sources that the best soybean yields in my part of South Central Illinois come when soybeans are planted between May 25 and June 7. 

Another thing to consider is Crop Insurance Planting Dates for Corn and Soybeans.  The crop insurance people are not in business to lose money and they have more data than anyone to support their dates.  Corn date in my area is June 5 and Soybean date is June 20.  We have all seen good to excellent yields in soybeans that are planted in late June especially first crop beans. 

And what is the cost of compaction created by getting on fields when they are too wet?  A quick google search today gave me information from all across the Midwest.  Universities say that yield losses related to compaction is 10 to 30%.  One of the problems with compaction is that it can last for several years. So in the end, my father's advise from 50 years ago is still relevant.  Plant when soil moisture conditions are right. 

If you still cannot come to terms with the fact that you may end up planting corn in June, maybe you should see a clergyman or mental health professional to help you deal with the stress.  Patience is certainly a virtue when you can't take care of business like you normally do.     

Headed For Drought?

Showers have been hit and miss for the last month, but some places are a bit short.  Below shows rainfall for the last 30 days.  Areas in green have had less than 2 inches.  Areas in yellow less than 4 inches.  Short term, we have rain in the forecast for Saturday.  A good rain would certainly help the corn crop toward tasseling and pollination.  Some forecasters are saying that long term weather is expected to be dry.  As in many years, we are two timely rains from a bumper crop. 

Rainfall and Drought

There has been a lot of concern about drought in Illinois this winter.  Last week, spring showers started early.  I did a soil boring on Friday and subsoil moisture was good to three feet.  We have had a least another inch since then and more is on the way.  For now, it looks like the drought threat is averted.  As always, we will need rain during the growing season to have good yields. 

NOAA Rain - last 7 days.  

Dry Areas

Last week was pretty good for most of Illinois from a rainfall standpoint, but there were gaps in the West South Central area especially.  Some areas got very little rainfall.  Crops are starting to show a good bit of stress.  The photo below was on some sandy soils in St. Charles County, Mo.  The areas of burned up corn will continue to get larger every day now.

Past 7 Days Rainfall

We have just had several days of wet weather.  You could get the idea that the effects of dry weather have been averted.  If you study the map, You will find that there are many areas that had only a half inch, especially to the west. On the plus side, many parts of Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana had good rain.  Some of the early planted corn is good till silking time, which is coming in two weeks.  Later planted corn was helped as far as getting roots to grow deeper, but probably more than half of the corn I have seen will need more rain to assure a decent crop.  I have not seen anything that leads me to believe that corn yields will be above trend line.  Early planted soybeans are looking good, but later planted soybeans have population issues.

Dry Weather Reprieve

Many dry areas of the Midwest had decent amounts of rain in the past two days. Areas below in blue and gray did not get much rain.  There are still acreage in southeast Iowa, Northwest Missouri and parts of Illinois, that did not get enough rain.  Those areas are in the heart of the corn belt.  This rain will not carry through the growing season except on some early planted corn.  Green areas below will be needing more rain in two weeks. This was certainly a welcome rain.  There is potential for more rain in the next few days.

Road Trip North and West

Weekend travels took us to Pella, Iowa for a family visit.  Some corn in Pike Co is in the V-8 to V-10 stage. On Friday, some corn in Pike County was starting to roll because of low humidity and high winds.  On the return trip, corn on the sandy soils had turned white.

Irrigation rigs were running in the Mississippi River bottoms as we traveled north. There were still a few planters in the field Friday.  Most of the soybeans in Iowa were V-1 to V-3.  It was interesting that almost no beans in Iowa were planted in 30 inch rows.

High winds, low humidity and high temperatures continued for our entire visit.  Corn in Iowa was V-3 to V-6 stage, so fortunately water requirements were lower than for some of the Illinois Corn.  In Iowa, people were already talking drought, although crops looked OK even as we traveled home Sunday.  To give and idea of the conditions though, I will comment that upper leaves on trees were wilted because they could not take up water fast enough.

Without regard to dry conditions, crops generally looked better in Iowa than they do in Illinois because soils were dryer for planting in Iowa.    

Rain in the forecast on Wednesday could help to rescue the corn from significant damage.

Rainfall Shortage?

We have been hearing some concerns expressed about dry soils in our area.  Rainfall the past week should have relieved that concern in the short run.

Topsoil moisture on Wednesday when we went to the field was just OK.  Topsoil should be well soaked at this point.  Septic tank borings through the winter to a depth of 5 feet have showed that subsoil was at least moist and in some places saturated,

Soil Moisture does not change much until tillage and transpiration start.  In a dry period it is easy to mess up your topsoil moisture with too much tillage.  With wetter topsoil, that is even easier to do.

The real problem is that through the winter, the rainfall pattern was a dry one. Until the past 2 days, I can't remember the last time we had at least an inch of rain.  If that dry pattern were to continue into the summer, crop yields would suffer.  The fact is that we cannot grow top yielding crops without timely rains in June, July, and August.      

Rainfall Departure form Normal

Rainfall amounts are looking good in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  Right now, It looks like we are on the brink of being wet.  Indiana and Ohio are still on the dry side.  

Road Trip to Bloomington

Yesterday I went to Bloomington for a meeting.  We drove past a lot of nice looking corn.  While we were there, a small amount of rain fell on part of that hole I have been talking about.  In some cases, the soil did not even look damp when we returned home.  About  a half inch fell in Hillsboro at least in my gauge.  The garden looked damp until noon.

Areas Short on Rain

Shown below is the rainfall map for the past 7 days.  The hole in the middle is mainly south central and southern Illinois.  The areas that got a good amount of rain are set for good pollination. Some of the southern Illinois area is just now recovering from excessive rainfall, so the situation is not as bleak as it may look,  but many of the the counties in white or light blue need a shower.  Is  it drought?  Maybe.  Can we recover?  A timely rain would help.

Past 60 Days Rainfall

Several people have asked about rainfall amounts recently, so I thought it was time to get a map from National Weather Service.  The map shows the past 60 days.  I darkened the Illinois border.  While it seemed like a wet spring because of the number of days of missed field work, rainfall amounts have been moderate except for the southern 100 or so miles of Illinois. Rainfall amounts around the first of the year were excessive, so we still have good subsoil moisture.  We have done septic tank investigations regularly this spring and except yesterday, we have had a water table in the subsoil at some point.  While things are starting to dry out, and we are seeing corn starting to roll in some areas, we are still a long way from a severe drought.  We are getting in to the part of summer when rainfall amounts are highly variable, but as long as storms keep moving through, there is always a chance to get some rain. As in many years, corn yields will be made by a timely rain in mid-July.

Rainfall Past 60 Days

Weather Spotter Training

Yesterday I went to weather spotter class.  I have gone 3 times and learned some new stuff each time.  The NWS instructor had some impressive video of the El Reno OK tornado.  I recommend that farmers and others who work outdoors a lot to go to the class.  It is good to learn how to read the clouds and know if you are going to get soaked or if you could get blown away.  They always say how much they depend on spotters for reports on tornadoes, hail, and snow.  There things that can only be seen in person.  They rely a lot on the trainded spotters.  THere were around 50 people last night.

Rainfall Past 7 Days

It seems like the rain has never stopped for the last 10 days.  The last 7 days have been especially rainy.  Below is from National Weather Service for the past 7 days.  Below I-70 there is a lot in the 6 to 10 inch range.  Most fields in our area have standing water all over.  The only good thing is that corn is getting big, so we can't see how bad it  looks.  IT looks like rain will continue this week.  Click to enlarge.

Very Wet

The photo below shows the Mississippi River out of bank at Alton. I took a trip to Portage Des Sioux today and did not see any dry land.  I have not heard anyone talk prevented planting on soybeans, but it could happen.  The Missouri River is also out of bank.

Clark Bridge at Alton, IL

Wet weather

We are getting a lot of rain this weekend. 1 to 3 inches. Corn is already showing effects of cold and wet.  There are still fields of soybeans to plant.  Corn prices remain in the dumper.

Rainy Weekend

Lots of people were thinking they needed rain.  It was a rainy weekend in most of the state.  Only the Northwest corner got less than an inch.  We have a crew working in the quadi Cities area right now to take advantage of the dryer weather in that area.  We are looking for another 2 week window to finish sampling corn ground.  We would also like everyone to get soybeans planted.  Click to enlarge. the National Weather Service Map.

Past 4 days rainfall

Weather and Crop Report

I finally found  a moment to look over this week's weather and crop report.  It seems to be accurate for my area.  WSW. It said as of Sunday 82% of corn was planted.  I would say it was at 100 % now, but I saw an Anhydrous wagon in an unplanted field, so maybe it is 99 %.  Most people in our area have some soybeans planted and some people are finished with soybeans too.  We would have liked to start planting a bit earlier, but everyone seems to have caught a favorable window at this point.

15% in our area were reporting dry topsoil, but I can tell you that I have not bored a dry hole yet.  Some ground that was worked too wet, needed a rain to soften up.  That was even the case in my garden. We have had between a half inch of rain and two inches so far, so we are looking good or slightly wet.  The next window of field work will see most soybeans planted as well.  Conditions should be ideal at that point.

Soil Moisture and Rainfall

Today I took a little roadtrip to Nashville, IL.  With melting snow and rain falling, you could think that soil moisture must be very good.  I looked up the 90 day rainfall maps on national weather Service web site.  It shows most of Illinois is normal to slightly below normal. Click on the maps to see the amounts better.  Seeing that many areas are as much as 4 inches below normal might raise a concern, but at this time of year we can catch up fairly quickly.  The few deep borings I have done this winter would lead me to believe that moisture is not a concern at all right now.  Asa always, timely summer rainfall can make a big difference for growing crops.

Last 90 days Departure from Normal