What about those USDA numbers?

USDA announced expected yields of 123 BPA for corn and 36 BPA for soybeans today.  The markets reacted, but the question is, how far off are those numbers.  I have heard private sources going as low as 114 based on some pretty solid numbers.  I do think some will have better yields than they expect.  A harvest report from Monroe County Illinois says that corn is running from 30 to 200 in the same field.  The producer is hoping to average 100.  Montgomery Co Illinois yield survey pegged the county yield at 83 BPA.  That is usually a good number  for the county average.  So what do you do if you need to buy or sell?  I cannot venture a guess.  My guess will be that we will not hear about the better corn yields for a little while yet.  We already know that there are fields without grain. 

Soybeans are even harder to guess.  Most of the bean crop would still benefit from rain.  The weather pattern is bringing scatted rain so we still have  chance to better that 36.  There will probably be dome zeros in the soybeans too.  How much damage did the extensive flea beetle infestations do?